I often get the question, what is the practical meaning of betting odds calculation? Why do betting friends need to know how betting odds are calculated?
So in today’s article, I’ll show one (Lots) Use your own calculation of betting odds, which gives professional traders a very powerful tool:
It is known that fluctuations in quotas are very important when trading, otherwise traders cannot make a profit.
However, contrary to the widespread belief that successful sports trading depends on as many quota movements as possible, you can produce more and more reliably, if you know which way quota will develop.
The game of football before the start of the game, except in exceptional cases which is very rare, has few opportunities in dynamics. You do not see large fluctuations in betting opportunities in the days before the match starts.
But what is in football strong tendency to adjust to the range of ‘reasonable’ betting opportunities in the last hour before the start the game and thus the trader, who can calculate betting odds, can calmly and accurately predict which direction the betting odds will develop.
(1) Calculation of the expected range
Course “Soccer prediction science“Teach with a very high degree of accuracy where the initial price range (Betting odds before kick-off) which is expected.
Incidentally, the term “initial price” comes from horse racing before the horse starts running. With regard to soccer betting, I prefer to talk about “opening odds” when bookies publish their first betting odds for a match, which can be weeks or even months before the start of the match, and “closing price”, betting odds before battle begin.
Let’s look at an example without studying betting odds calculation and extensive explanation.
We consider the game as an example Werder Bremen against Mönchengladbach on 15 October 2017.
The course is equipped with Spreadsheets, and the following is a screenshot of one that shows the respective probability for home and away matches of the two teams involved in the game:
Incidentally, the expected betting odds are only calculated by the average probability of home and away matches and then adding or subtracting the appropriate standard deviations. A screenshot will be coming soon.
But first a screenshot with betting odds 24 hours before kick-off, so we can see and compare them (as expected) already changed.
(2) Comparison of expected ranges and market betting opportunities
The next screen shot shows the calculation one day before the match starts (As mentioned, the average value of the probability of home and away matches ± standard deviation) and compare current market betting opportunities with the calculated ‘fair’ betting odds range.
Some cells are color coded.
that ‘Under 2.5 goals’ Bets are offered the day before the match at a maximum level of 2.40, which is 0.7 ‘ticks’ about which is a range ”.
that ‘More than 2.5 goals’, ‘More than 3.5 goals’, ‘More than 5.5 goals’ and ‘More than 6.5 goals’ All bets under expected range.
(3) the last chance to kickoff
Compare the value of ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ bets from the day before the match with the betting rate just before kick-off and also compare’ Over 2.5 Goals’, ‘Over 3.5 Goals’,’ Over 5.5 Goals’ and betting odds’ More than 6.5 goals ‘.
Which direction do these 5 betting odds move?
Are you aware that all 5 “anomalies” have moved in the expected range before kick-off?
The bet value ‘under 2.5 goals’ has dropped because it is above the range. The odds of betting ‘Over 2.5 Goals’, ‘Over 3.5 Goals’, ‘Over 5.5 Goals’ and ‘Over 6.5 Goals’ all increase because everything is below the expected range.
Betting odds on the last 24 hours before kick-off
This is another screenshot, which compares betting odds on the day before a match with betting odds just before kick-off:
Changes in opportunities are not large and none are in the middle of the range (zero quota) reached or even exceeded, but they are definitely moving in the “right” direction and, except for ‘Under 2.5 goals’ bets, all other betting odds are within the expected range (‘Fair’ Quota) arrived.
This is almost always the case and traders can take advantage of it – buy “cheap” and sell “more expensive” before kick-off, or vice versa.
For those who doubt among readers …
Here are the games that won’t be played until next weekend: Bayern Munich vs Augsburg on 11/18/2017
I don’t know the outcome yet, but I predict with clear conscience that the odds of under-goal bets will all go down shortly before kick-off, and the odds of over-goal bets will go up – especially odds on U / U 2.5, U / U 3.5 and higher.
How precise of course it is in the stars and since this is a Bayern Munich match, it is doubtful that the correction quota will even approach the expected ‘fair’ chance. But they are so “out there” that there will definitely be a correction in the market.
In this game, public opinion is massively taken into account when the first opportunity is published.
Traders can use this knowledge to move odds by determining the expected range of ‘fair’ betting opportunities and executing their trades based on this knowledge.
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