This article is a short trip to the topic of risk management, especially risk assessment, risk control and the distribution of capital in sports betting, because too often questions arise …

How high is my initial bench?
Is 5,000 euros enough?

Because there are no standard answers to these questions and always depend on individual strategies, here is a brief introduction on how to create bank fluctuations (e.g. win and lose series) can predict and how to apply this knowledge to your share capital (Early bench) to determine.

Long series of losing streak & losing

Hopefully it won’t take long to explain that the smaller the probability of an event will occur (e.g. chance to win the bet), the longer the “barrage of bad luck”, e.g. a series of lost bets.

However, how often and how long is a big question mark.

You can count a lot mathematically, including the series and episodes of “bad luck” and “luck”. But please, dear reader, know that no matter how exactly you count, they are “only” models! We talk about probabilities, e.g. we predict what it will look like in the future! “Can”, not how “will”.

Of course, the bigger the sample (Number of bets), the more accurate the prediction. But who other than the betting makers has a betting portfolio of thousands of bets every weekend?

Here is a formula that can be used to determine the longest winning streak or losing streak of an event:

n = number of attempts (Total number of bets)

ln = natural logarithm
P = probability (expected hit or loss rate)

In practice, of course, the formula can only be used if you continue to bet on the same probability over and over, like “red” for the lottery.

This is much more difficult with soccer betting, but you can choose a probability cluster and choose your bet correctly, as always betting in the range between 75% and 85% of the expected hit rate.

Victory & Lose TableThe length of a losing streak and the losing streak depends on the number of attempts

The illustration above shows the calculation of the maximum number of lucky and unlucky lines expected depending on expected hit rate (The probability of winning a bet).

To learn to read tables, let’s look at rows with 70%, e.g. for bets with a 7/10 win chance.

The left table calculates expectations for 50 trials (50 bets in a row, not at the same time!). This means that betting buddies who place exactly 50 bets with a 70% probability must expect at least one consecutive losing out of 3 consecutive losing bets despite this high probability.

On the other hand, he can also try (50 bets with a 70% chance) Expect to win at least 11 bets in a row.

However, sports fans only bet on events with a 30% chance (like a tie), then he can count on 50 attempts (bets) that he will have at least one “losing streak” with 11 bets in a row lost, but only one “luck” with 3 bets in a row won.

To develop a sense of probability and series, you can experiment with cubes – 6 sides, e.g. Probability of 16.67% of each of the 6 numbers. You try to roll a certain number (eg A 2) and count the number of throws if it does not come, and also the number of throws rolled several times in a row.

Duty:

Take a cube. Select 2 numbers that you do not want to play (e.g. 5 and 6). That is, there is a 66.7% chance that one of the remaining 4 numbers will be rolled (when betting, the bet will be 66.7%, which is often a “less than 3.5 goal” bet – Ice only you have to wait long before you have enough games together to play dice faster!).

Make a table similar to the one above and count the number of bad luck or luck for 100 attempts.

What is the maximum expected amount of bad luck or luck after 100 attempts (betting)?

Now turn 100 times and check your calculations in an experiment.

So, we have now learned to calculate the maximum length expected from bad luck and bad luck. The next question to ask yourself is:

How many attempts were made to expect losers X in a row?

The time of entry of luck and disadvantage lines

The formula is actually very simple:

Sequence Loss Formula

P = probability (hit rate or expected rate of loss)
a = number of consecutive winning or losing bets

In the picture below you can see how many attempts (bets) are needed to experience the expected length of what is called the luck and disadvantage lines. Again, the assumption is that betting friends bet on the same probability all the time and place one bet after another (not together).

Win & Loss Order CalculationsThe expected time of entry from the line of luck and disadvantage depends on the level of hits

Read the table:

For example, if the expected hit rate is 45% (what is expected to be around 2.22), then betting buddies must take into account each “6th bet placed” in a row of 3 bets lost in a row. After every 20th bet there will be 5 bets lost in a row.

Only after every 11th bet is placed, sports enthusiasts can expect “consecutive wins” of 3 bets won in a row, but 5 bets won in a row may only produce 54 bets.

To make matters worse … In soccer, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to find bets with the same probability. However, we should at least try to understand the theory, because a longer set of losses can be nervously significant survive better.

Understanding the set of lost bets is very important when you determine your initial bank and the amount of the bet.

Use the two tables above:

Bets friends tend to bet with odds between 2.0 and 2.5 and expect a hit rate of between 40% and 50%.

With only 50 bets, a betting partner must (with odds between 2.0 and 2.5) Expect at least one “losing streak” from 7 to 9 bets to be lost in a row, and it must also expect for every 5 to 8 bet that at least 3 bets will be lost in a row.

Start the rule of thumb

The initial bench must be about 5 times the maximum losing streak, because this could happen right at the start, followed by another “losing streak”.

For example, if you plan to bet € 10 per bet, the initial bank must be 9 times € 10 times 5 = € 450, and then you place 2.2% of your bank (€ 10 divided by € 450) on each bet.

You maintain the same bet if you lose and gradually increase if you win.

Set an initial bank:

  1. What is the expected hit rate (probability of winning a bet)?
  2. How many bets do you plan for this season?
  3. How long is the longest losing streak expected?
  4. How many bets per bet?
  5. Calculate the initial bank

Max length Losses in a row * planned bets per bet * 5

Training to lose line & bankruptcy series

  1. Buddy bets follow the strategy with a 60% probability per bet (for example, “less than 3.5 goals”). He bet one by one, that is, he bets, waiting for the results of the bet before placing the next bet.With a total of 50 bets, how long can you lose a streak? What is the longest winning streak he can hope for?
  2. The same example as in (1): strategy with a 60% probability per bet; Place bets one by one.The weather is hoping for a winning streak of 5 consecutive wins. How many laps happened?If a bet friend bet a total of 100 times, how many times can he expect a winning streak out of 5 consecutive wins? How often can he expect successive defeats out of 5 consecutive defeats?
  3. Bets friends have a strategy with a probability of 20% per bet (for example, “bet on the winner”). He bet one after another, that is, he bets, waiting for the results before placing the next bet.With a total of 500 bets, what is the longest losing streak he can expect? What was the longest “winnig line” he could hope for?
  4. The same example as in (3): strategy with a probability of 20% per bet; Place bets one by oneThe weather is hoping for a “winning streak” of 5 consecutive wins. How many laps happened? Of how many rounds does the weather forecast with “consecutive losses” out of 5 consecutive defeats?
  5. Bets friends who follow the two strategies above (one with a 60% chance of winning, another with 20%), want to bet € 10 per bet.How high should the initial bank be for the 60% strategy and how high for the 20% strategy?Note: The initial bench should be about 5 times the maximum loss. We will be “safe” and expect at least 500 bets to be played.

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