Will the results of the game be unstable this year? Can I continue to use previous statistics to predict the outcome of upcoming matches?
What we know at the time of this writing is that the start of the new league season in China, South Korea and Japan has been postponed. Many Italian Serie A matches are currently played in empty stadiums.
The betting fan might be wondering: What effect will this have on the betting system if the league stops for one season, starts later or stops prematurely?
The problem is that no one really knows in which direction things will go. There is huge uncertainty everywhere, and the press is full of reports of new outbreaks and more and more people being infected. Therefore, it is not surprising that feelings of panic grow.
This may be a very sensitive issue at the moment, but we will look at it from a purely statistical and pragmatic point of view.
In advance and summarized: Viruses will not be harmful to individuals or soccer leagues. Why can’t you find out by reading this article.
The current corona virus trend
On February 26, 2020, several countries began mass testing for the Covid-19 virus. At the time of writing, Britain had completed 7,132 tests, 13 of which were positive (positive rate of 0.2%). Italy has completed 9,462 tests, 470 of which were positive (5.0% positive rate). Mass tests were also carried out in France, Austria and the United States. No doubt other countries will follow.
The virus has the potential to become a pandemic. Therefore, every country in the world takes this threat very seriously and works very hard to reduce the risk to its population and stop the spread of the virus.
However … Even though there is clear hysteria …
- The number of patients recovering worldwide has been since February 19 (last week) higher than the number of newly infected patients every day.
- The total number of serious and critical cases and deaths caused by this virus has decreased worldwide.
Facts we know about the corona virus
- In China and other parts of the world, 82% of those infected do not show or have very mild symptoms. Many do not even realize that they are infected with a virus. 10% have more severe symptoms and 8% of those infected have symptoms that are so severe that they must be hospitalized.Groups of people with serious illnesses are mainly elderly people or people with preexisting diseases.
- At time of writing:
China: Total 78,832 cases >> 1,386 billion population 0.0057% Chinese population is affected
South Korea: 2,337 cases in total >> 51.47 million population 0.0045% South Korea’s population is affected
Italy: Total 655 cases >> 60.48 million population 0.0011% Italian population is affected
To understand the numbers above and make them comparable:
In Great Britain, 364 players won the National Lottery in 2019 and became a millionaire >> with 66.44 million inhabitants 0,0005% from the British population become a National Lottery millionaire every year.
A total of 125 players across Germany can hope for a seven-digit victory in 2019, saying that in Lotto and Totoblock Germany (DLTB) with >> with 82.79 million inhabitants 0,0002% from the German population
This might look cold, but it can be seen from the figures above that the probability of being infected with the corona virus is statistically almost as low as winning at least one million in the lottery. And finally, every reader will probably agree with me, absolutely not!
Then why is there so much hype about this virus?
The huge problem with this highly contagious virus is not only unknown, but the highest is infected people (82%) who are carriers of this deadly infection, but do not realize it because they have almost no symptoms. . This is a very significant problem, because if transmission is not controlled, it will result in large-scale virus spread, many deaths and collapse of the medical system in the countries concerned.
Therefore large control measures are currently observed throughout the world. Control measures naturally include ensuring a high level of public awareness, which is accompanied by extensive reporting in the mass media.
Dear football widow reader, I want to remind you of my message that is spread throughout the website: Massive press coverage and the resulting public opinion does not mean that the actual risk is higher than that shown by the actual statistics.
For purely statistical reasons, there is no reason to panic at all, at least not for individuals; for the country and their health minister.
With all precautions currently in place (School closures, entire cities, and maybe even quarantined areas, travel restrictions, self-isolation, etc.) it is very unlikely that the virus will spread without being checked.
No need to panic. Life will go on as usual!
I received criticism from my husband for the choice of the title of this chapter, because the spread of the virus today is felt emotionally. However, the cruel fact that the lives of people who are not affected will continue as usual for the virus, which is only felt through media coverage, panic and personal prevention measures.
Please see the facts we know about the corona virus. At present, only 0.0057% of the Chinese population is affected by coronavirus, with the trend in China declining. Cases outside of China are increasing rapidly, so these two trends need to be analyzed separately. For example, 0.0045% of South Korea’s population is affected by coronaviruses, and no matter how hard it sounds, these numbers will continue to grow, but they cannot possibly exceed the number of China.
Looking at all this through a statistical lens, it can be said that the maximum expectation is likely to be 0.01%, that the population of a country will be infected and the good news is that 82% of these infected people will only suffer mild symptoms.
More severe symptoms appear in 18%:
0.01% * 18% = 0.0018%
Statistically, a maximum of 0.0018% of the population of a country will experience severe symptoms of this virus outbreak, but perhaps far less, with all current preventive measures throughout the world.
0.0018% means that 2 out of 100,000 people can get sick. As I said, you (or your favorite soccer player) are far more likely to win a significant number of lotteries than you suffer from severe symptoms of the corona virus.
There should be no real impact on the outcome of the match
Of course, all these quarantines and keys will affect the economy and business, but most of the impact will come from human psychology, not viruses.
Please remember that professional soccer clubs are companies and, like other solid companies, will do anything to continue to perform at the same high level and not be crushed by temporary panic.
In Italy, for example, many Serie A matches have recently been played in private. This is only a precaution to ensure that you can continue playing and there is consistency. Thus, in Italian Serie A there should be no adverse effects seen on the outcome of the match. And … Please don’t forget all this: clubs get the most money from television broadcasting rights and not from fans’ entry fees.
Do you remember the Japanese tsunami in 2011, where 15,899 people died? Although the league was stopped for seven weeks after the first round, this break did not affect the J1 league’s statistical patterns during that season. And the corona virus also won’t have it; not in Japan or anywhere else.
Therefore, please be careful and do not be tempted to make premature judgments ~ we do not live in a film (Even if it might feel a little like that nowadays)!
At this point, given the relatively small number of serious viral-related illnesses in each country, it is very unlikely that the virus can have an influence on the long-term outcome of a league.
Newspapers are obviously full of this topic every day (Public awareness must be raised! Newspapers must be sold!), but please, please force yourself to think statistically and put things in the right light.
Attention and risk management
Now the summer league has begun … Please remember that the new season always has the habit of starting a little bumpy with or without the corona virus. It always takes six to eight rounds for the team to start playing “statistically correct”. Look at ours League reports on Soccerwidow for HDAFU tables last season.
Betting enthusiasts who use the Value Calculator or course books and their cluster tables to calculate their value bets will find that any corona virus effect (if any) is taken into account. Betting odds are always a reliable measure of your own calculations, regardless of external circumstances.
The weather system HDAFU table no need to worry. There should be no impact on the distribution of game results, or on the way bets manage their betting odds. On the contrary, bookies will surely take advantage of mass hysteria and reduce prices that should be lower.
However, for betting fans who avoid risk: choose your system in the normal way and monitor for a while without risking a lot of money. It never hurts to be patient and wait and see how it develops.
My general advice is always: The first 6-8 weeks of each season is always a bumpy journey, with or without a corona virus in the background. It never hurts to give up betting during this period and use the time for a paper test.
I really hope this article helps you calm the panic feelings that might arise with you, your family, and your friends.
And of course I hope, as usual, good luck with betting and this time the virus will never approach your city. Feeling sick to know that this virus exists, but in the corner … it doesn’t have to be that way.
Article Source : www.fussballwitwe.de